arm · constrainedEqualWeightLongStrategy

Equal-risk long-only

At the pinned config (seed 7, 200 bars, FOMC drift 50.0000 bps) this arm scored Sharpe 1.88. Across the 5-seed sweep its mean Sharpe was 0.81 (stdev 1.49, range -0.93 → 2.45).

-1.002.50

Single-seed result · seed 7

200 bars · fomc drift 50.0000 bps

1.88

sharpe

cumulative pnl

+$104.4k

max drawdown

-$25.5k

Δsharpe vs baseline

+0.64

Δpnl vs baseline

+37.3k

Cumulative pnl · 200 bars

equal_risk_long_onlybaseline

day 0ends: +$104.4k · baseline +$67.2kday 200

Per-seed sharpe · seeds 7..11

mean 0.81 · stdev 1.49

The single-seed lead can be a fluke. Each row below is one seed's draw at the same config — the spread across the five tells you whether the seed-7 number is signal or sample-of-one luck.

seed 7
sharpe 1.88
positive draw
1.88
seed 8
sharpe 2.45
positive draw
2.45
seed 9
sharpe -0.55
negative draw
-0.55
seed 10
sharpe -0.93
negative draw
-0.93
seed 11
sharpe 1.18
positive draw
1.18

min -0.93max 2.45vs baseline mean -0.20

Per-symbol contribution · seed 7

10 symbols · 6 winners · 4 losers

Where the arm's PnL actually came from. Each universe symbol's contribution to the +$104.4k total, plus how many days the arm held that symbol long / short / flat over the 200-bar window.

EEE71d long · 128d flat
+$44.0k
EEE · 36% long, 0% short, 64% flat
+$44.0k
GGG91d long · 108d flat
+$42.5k
GGG · 46% long, 0% short, 54% flat
+$42.5k
FFF88d long · 111d flat
+$22.6k
FFF · 44% long, 0% short, 56% flat
+$22.6k
III44d long · 155d flat
+$15.6k
III · 22% long, 0% short, 78% flat
+$15.6k
DDD46d long · 153d flat
+$13.9k
DDD · 23% long, 0% short, 77% flat
+$13.9k
AAA68d long · 131d flat
+$12.4k
AAA · 34% long, 0% short, 66% flat
+$12.4k
BBB7d long · 192d flat
-$1.6k
BBB · 4% long, 0% short, 96% flat
-$1.6k
JJJ40d long · 159d flat
-$12.9k
JJJ · 20% long, 0% short, 80% flat
-$12.9k
CCC35d long · 164d flat
-$14.6k
CCC · 18% long, 0% short, 82% flat
-$14.6k
HHH47d long · 152d flat
-$17.3k
HHH · 24% long, 0% short, 76% flat
-$17.3k

Contributions sum to the arm's final cumulative PnL (+$104.4k). Bars share a symmetric axis around zero so a winner and a loser of the same magnitude render at the same visual length.

Family · constrained

all 15 arms →

Long-only · top-quantile momentum1.88
XsLongOnlyMomentumStrategy

Strategy details

class: EqualWeightLongStrategy
family: constrained
arm key: equal_risk_long_only
lookback: 20 bars (panel default)
long quantile: 0.3
gross leverage: 1.0

Reproduce this arm

$ uv run python scripts/build_compare_fixture.py
wrote examples/fomc_blackout_compare/results.json (15 arms)
wrote examples/fomc_blackout_compare/results_multi_seed.json (15 arms × 5 seeds)

The fixture builder holds the pinned config (seed 7, 200 bars, FOMC vol multiplier 3.0000, FOMC drift 50.0000 bps) and re-walks every arm. The Python drift test asserts bytewise equality on every CI run, so the numbers on this page match what a reader gets when they regen.