Thesis lifecycle.
Every published research note carries anactive / exploratory /superseded status (ADR-0012). This page is the lifecycle view — what's promoted, what's in the queue, what was killed — sourced from the same frontmatter that drives the citer-chips on/writing and the live-book footer on each note.
For the review-queue side of the lifecycle — declining-PnL citers + abandoned-and-old notes — see/writing/stale(ADR-0014, live-polled).
active · 58
current thesis — sorted by citer-count desc- The strategy catalog — twenty-nine panel/event shapes, one ranking helper← 102026-05-22 · 9 min
- Walk-forward without leakage: a checklist that's saved me← 92026-03-18 · 3 min
- Strategy shape beats factor count: TSMom > 4-factor on the same data← 72026-05-22 · 3 min
- The baseline arm you forgot to include← 72026-05-22 · 4 min
- The promotion gate: why bad data should be unreachable← 72026-05-17 · 3 min
- Designing an event-aware strategy: a checklist← 62026-05-22 · 4 min
- One hundred seeds confirms and converges← 62026-05-22 · 4 min
- The event clock isn't the panel clock← 62026-05-22 · 6 min
- The pairwise rule — final form (four iterations later)← 62026-05-22 · 5 min
- Vol-regime filter wins on mean, pays in variance← 62026-05-22 · 1 min
- Composite strategies can interfere← 52026-05-22 · 4 min
- Don't pay for caution you can't justify← 52026-05-22 · 5 min
- Long-only buys asymmetric exposure, not just lower Sharpe← 52026-05-22 · 4 min
- Three-clock momentum tops the harness← 52026-05-22 · 4 min
- Vol ratio as cross-symbol regime gate← 52026-05-22 · 3 min
- What 19 arms told us about strategy composition← 52026-05-22 · 5 min
- What 24 arms told us — the session's research log← 52026-05-22 · 4 min
- The citation graph as substrate← 52026-05-21 · 4 min
- Dual-signal data makes composites stack← 42026-05-22 · 4 min
- Pairwise correlation predicts composition before you run it← 42026-05-22 · 4 min
- Perfect correlation explains the interference← 42026-05-22 · 3 min
- The full pairwise matrix — 28 arms at N=100← 42026-05-22 · 3 min
- The pairwise rule predicted this one← 42026-05-22 · 4 min
- Vol-clustering breaks the regime filter — but not for the obvious reason← 42026-05-22 · 3 min
- AI research agents as platform citizens← 42026-05-21 · 5 min
- Dual-signal at N=100: the composite stacks (slightly)← 32026-05-22 · 3 min
- Fifty seeds reveal the tie← 32026-05-22 · 4 min
- What 27 arms told us — session research log v3← 32026-05-22 · 5 min
- The deploy contract isn't a YAML file← 32026-04-12 · 4 min
- Higher moments add noise faster than signal← 22026-05-22 · 4 min
- The intervention-point rule, confirmed by a fourth experiment← 22026-05-22 · 4 min
- Synthetic data shows what you were solving for← 22026-05-22 · 3 min
- Three vol-intervention experiments, zero wins on this synthetic← 22026-05-22 · 4 min
- What 29 arms told us — session research log v4← 22026-05-22 · 4 min
- Refusal as planning hint← 22026-05-21 · 5 min
- Observability for alpha pipelines: three dashboards, one rule← 22026-01-30 · 3 min
- Anti-correlation hedges, doesn't stack — the pairwise rule's 5th iteration← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Disconfirmed: the transition-gate fix didn't recover the regime-filter← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Drift vs reversal: the cleanest counterfactual for a post-event regime← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Dual-signal at N=100, all 27 arms — the full picture← 12026-05-22 · 3 min
- An event-aware wrapper needs signal concentration, not just signal presence← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Event gates cost Sharpe when the event has edge← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Fifty seeds, twenty-four arms — the full leaderboard← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- The sign-vs-rank composition conflict← 12026-05-22 · 5 min
- The clustered-vol finding was also small-N — another tie at higher N← 12026-05-22 · 3 min
- The first robust single-signal stack← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Vol-of-vol distinguishes regime from level← 12026-05-22 · 3 min
- Why ts_momentum leads at N=100← 12026-05-22 · 4 min
- Right-sizing the research data platform: five thresholds, in order← 12026-05-17 · 6 min
- MLOps for quant research isn't MLOps for ML← 12026-02-22 · 3 min
- How to use the comparison harness2026-05-22 · 3 min
- Property tests catch cross-strategy bugs that per-strategy tests miss2026-05-22 · 4 min
- Redundant vs multiplicative composition — what +0.70 means2026-05-22 · 3 min
- Sharpe is scale-invariant. Stop trying to make it not.2026-05-22 · 3 min
- Six regression tests pin the findings2026-05-22 · 3 min
- The single-seed lead was a fluke2026-05-22 · 4 min
- Audit isn't a feature you turn on2026-05-21 · 5 min
- Search isn't research2026-05-21 · 6 min
exploratory · 1
thinking out loud — sorted by date desc- FIXTURE: synthetic thesis stream2026-07-09 · 1 min
superseded · 0
no longer holds — sorted by date descnone
how this is wired
Each writing note's frontmatter carriesstatus: active | exploratory | superseded(per ADR-0012, validated by the content collection schema in src/content.config.ts). Asuperseded note also requiressuperseded_by — the slug of the current thesis that replaced it.
This page filters + buckets at build time. The same field drives the top-of-article banner on/writing/<slug> (#460) and the "exploratory / superseded" chip on the sandbox + agent citer footers — one source of truth, four surfaces.
For the operator:"what got decided overnight" lives here. The active bucket now ranks load-bearing theses (high citer-count) first; the transitional buckets stay date-desc so recent shifts jump out. For the registry that enforces the promotion contract at the live-capital threshold, see /projects/model-registry.