{
  "agreement_score": 83.52,
  "as_of": "2023-03-31",
  "demand": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "usage_growth",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Inference usage / spend growth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.33,
        "score": 66.5,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "adoption_breadth",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Open-model adoption breadth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.19,
        "score": 69.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "unit_cost_deflation",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Provider unit-cost deflation",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": -0.28,
        "score": 78.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "capital_commitment",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Hyperscaler capital commitment",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.29,
        "score": 69.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "committed_pipeline",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Committed data-center pipeline",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 8.5,
        "score": 56.666666666666664,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Demand intensity",
    "score": 67.83,
    "state": "high"
  },
  "diffusion_index": 59.59,
  "dispersion_band": [
    51.35,
    67.83
  ],
  "fixture": false,
  "freshness": {
    "excluded": [],
    "oldest_included_days": null,
    "report": "retrospective proxy reconstruction; not point-in-time publication eligible"
  },
  "generated_at": "2023-03-31T00:00:00",
  "jevons_scenarios": {
    "jevons_intact": {
      "binding_until": 2041,
      "overbuild_year": null,
      "peak_desired_gw": 6177.0,
      "peak_desired_year": 2031,
      "regime_flip_year": 2032
    },
    "monetization_break": {
      "binding_until": null,
      "overbuild_year": 2029,
      "peak_desired_gw": 72.5,
      "peak_desired_year": 2028,
      "regime_flip_year": 2028
    },
    "saturating": {
      "binding_until": 2032,
      "overbuild_year": 2033,
      "peak_desired_gw": 463.9,
      "peak_desired_year": 2030,
      "regime_flip_year": 2031
    }
  },
  "methodology_version": "2026-07-10.v1",
  "print_id": "2023-03-31",
  "rationale": "Demand is high at 67.8/100 (100% coverage); supply is balanced at 51.4/100 (100%). The 16.5-point axis spread implies 83.5/100 agreement.",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "spec_sha256": "a2e714e7daa99a6771c9290b4a008795358032e887356e8f042c203bb08b6c1f",
  "status": "replay_proxy",
  "supply": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "supply_cycle_gate",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Fused component-cycle gate",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": "BALANCED",
        "raw_value": null,
        "score": 50.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "chokepoint_tension",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Chokepoint tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.54,
        "score": 55.71428571428572,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2023-03-31",
        "component": "relief_window_tension",
        "detail": "2023 HBM retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Capacity relief-window tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.49,
        "score": 48.33333333333333,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Supply tightness",
    "score": 51.35,
    "state": "balanced"
  },
  "verdict": "DEMAND_LED_EXPANSION"
}