{
  "agreement_score": 86.8,
  "as_of": "2021-09-30",
  "demand": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "usage_growth",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Inference usage / spend growth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.21,
        "score": 60.5,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "adoption_breadth",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Open-model adoption breadth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.12,
        "score": 62.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "unit_cost_deflation",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Provider unit-cost deflation",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": -0.14,
        "score": 64.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "capital_commitment",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Hyperscaler capital commitment",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.34,
        "score": 74.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "committed_pipeline",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Committed data-center pipeline",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 10.0,
        "score": 66.66666666666667,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Demand intensity",
    "score": 65.43,
    "state": "high"
  },
  "diffusion_index": 72.03,
  "dispersion_band": [
    65.43,
    78.63
  ],
  "fixture": false,
  "freshness": {
    "excluded": [],
    "oldest_included_days": null,
    "report": "retrospective proxy reconstruction; not point-in-time publication eligible"
  },
  "generated_at": "2021-09-30T00:00:00",
  "jevons_scenarios": {
    "jevons_intact": {
      "binding_until": 2041,
      "overbuild_year": null,
      "peak_desired_gw": 6177.0,
      "peak_desired_year": 2031,
      "regime_flip_year": 2032
    },
    "monetization_break": {
      "binding_until": null,
      "overbuild_year": 2029,
      "peak_desired_gw": 72.5,
      "peak_desired_year": 2028,
      "regime_flip_year": 2028
    },
    "saturating": {
      "binding_until": 2032,
      "overbuild_year": 2033,
      "peak_desired_gw": 463.9,
      "peak_desired_year": 2030,
      "regime_flip_year": 2031
    }
  },
  "methodology_version": "2026-07-10.v1",
  "print_id": "2021-09-30",
  "rationale": "Demand is high at 65.4/100 (100% coverage); supply is tight at 78.6/100 (100%). The 13.2-point axis spread implies 86.8/100 agreement.",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "spec_sha256": "a2e714e7daa99a6771c9290b4a008795358032e887356e8f042c203bb08b6c1f",
  "status": "replay_proxy",
  "supply": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "supply_cycle_gate",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Fused component-cycle gate",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": "EARLY-CRACK",
        "raw_value": null,
        "score": 55.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "chokepoint_tension",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Chokepoint tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.83,
        "score": 97.14285714285714,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2021-09-30",
        "component": "relief_window_tension",
        "detail": "2021 ABF retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Capacity relief-window tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.77,
        "score": 83.75,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate05-rentry.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Supply tightness",
    "score": 78.63,
    "state": "tight"
  },
  "verdict": "DEMAND_LED_TIGHTNESS"
}