{
  "agreement_score": 50.13,
  "as_of": "2018-09-30",
  "demand": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "usage_growth",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Inference usage / spend growth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": -0.02,
        "score": 45.00000000000001,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "adoption_breadth",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Open-model adoption breadth",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": -0.06,
        "score": 35.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "unit_cost_deflation",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Provider unit-cost deflation",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.08,
        "score": 10.000000000000002,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "capital_commitment",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Hyperscaler capital commitment",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.24,
        "score": 64.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "committed_pipeline",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Committed data-center pipeline",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 7.0,
        "score": 46.666666666666664,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.2
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Demand intensity",
    "score": 40.13,
    "state": "neutral"
  },
  "diffusion_index": 65.06,
  "dispersion_band": [
    40.13,
    90.0
  ],
  "fixture": false,
  "freshness": {
    "excluded": [],
    "oldest_included_days": null,
    "report": "retrospective proxy reconstruction; not point-in-time publication eligible"
  },
  "generated_at": "2018-09-30T00:00:00",
  "jevons_scenarios": {
    "jevons_intact": {
      "binding_until": 2041,
      "overbuild_year": null,
      "peak_desired_gw": 6177.0,
      "peak_desired_year": 2031,
      "regime_flip_year": 2032
    },
    "monetization_break": {
      "binding_until": null,
      "overbuild_year": 2029,
      "peak_desired_gw": 72.5,
      "peak_desired_year": 2028,
      "regime_flip_year": 2028
    },
    "saturating": {
      "binding_until": 2032,
      "overbuild_year": 2033,
      "peak_desired_gw": 463.9,
      "peak_desired_year": 2030,
      "regime_flip_year": 2031
    }
  },
  "methodology_version": "2026-07-10.v1",
  "print_id": "2018-09-30",
  "rationale": "Demand is neutral at 40.1/100 (100% coverage); supply is tight at 90.0/100 (100%). The 49.9-point axis spread implies 50.1/100 agreement.",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "spec_sha256": "a2e714e7daa99a6771c9290b4a008795358032e887356e8f042c203bb08b6c1f",
  "status": "replay_proxy",
  "supply": {
    "components": [
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "supply_cycle_gate",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Fused component-cycle gate",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": "TIGHT",
        "raw_value": null,
        "score": 90.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "chokepoint_tension",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Chokepoint tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.88,
        "score": 100.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "age_days": null,
        "as_of": "2018-09-30",
        "component": "relief_window_tension",
        "detail": "2018 MLCC retrospective proxy reconstruction acquired 2026-07-10; not point-in-time evidence",
        "evidence_class": "retrospective_proxy",
        "exclusion_reason": null,
        "included": true,
        "knowledge_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00",
        "label": "Capacity relief-window tension",
        "observation_age_days": 0,
        "raw_label": null,
        "raw_value": 0.74,
        "score": 80.0,
        "source_coverage": 1.0,
        "source_members_expected": [],
        "source_members_present": [],
        "source_url": "books/_frontier/chokepoint_screen/docs/2026-07-06-gate0.md",
        "weight": 0.3333333333333333
      }
    ],
    "coverage": 1.0,
    "label": "Supply tightness",
    "score": 90.0,
    "state": "tight"
  },
  "verdict": "SUPPLY_CONSTRAINED"
}